Autonomous Mobility

Give it 12 years. 2025 is a nice, round number.

I’ve been thinking a lot about the inevitable automation of cars. I think that full automation – not touching the wheel, gas, or brakes – is closer than most people think. There will be a number of factors keeping broad adoption low to begin with, but from a commercial availability perspective, it’s right around the corner. Though when I say available, I’m somehow not saying on sale to the consumer. But I’m getting ahead of myself.

There are plenty of moving parts that march us ever towards this new relationship with vehicles; I’ll try to name as many as I can before I feel the need to admit I don’t know what the fuck I’m talking about.

Cars are getting smarter

The tech needed to support fully automated cars exists right now, and already has hundreds of thousands of proof-of-concept miles in the bag tank trunk. Companies like Google, VW, and Toyota have had driverless cars quietly moving around cities and highways for a few years, to wildly safe success.

Much of that same tech is routinely baked into current consumer vehicles, but packaged as individual safety or luxury features. Brake assist, lane departure warnings, anti-fatigue measures, and pedestrian avoidance systems are commonplace. Steer by wire, super cruise, and intricate arrays of advanced sensors and cameras are coming on line more and more. Each of these features use the same technological underpinnings that are needed for fully autonomous cars.

All this boils down to one quiet yet important fact: You can buy a Mercedes, today, that can drive itself in stop and go traffic; speeding up, slowing down, and going around corners, without your input. Tomorrow you can buy an Audi that finds a parking spot in a garage after you’ve gotten out and gone inside somewhere. And to a computer, the difference between 5 mph and 75 mph isn’t nearly as big as it is to us.

We’re not getting any better at driving

We suck at driving. All of us. Even you. Compared to machines your situational comprehension, reaction time, decision making ability, spatial reasoning, and object permanence is embarrassing. Unfortunately, all of these are extraordinarily important components in being able to drive well. On top of that, modern cars and the roads they drive on are get better, which means average speeds are increasing, shrinking our precious margins of error.

How long will it take the insurance industry to recognize, in miles driven before a wreck, the difference between an autonomous Prius and a 16 year old with a hashtag addiction? Or an octogenarian with undiagnosed Alzheimer’s? Or any male under the age of 35? Seven weeks is my bet – a month to generate the numbers, a week for analysis, a week to double check that analysis, and a week to draft new policies for automated cars.

There are other nickels and dimes to be saved

Besides the insurance savings, less will also be spent on gas. Initially, smarter routing based on real-time traffic updates, and smoother mechanical operation (acceleration and breaking), will boost individual MPG returns. Rerouting around accidents will become a trusted component and barely even noticed by the driver, so time spent in traffic will decrease. But when you scale up adoption city wide, and then to a national level, the 5% lift in efficiency you found individually will be dwarfed by what comes next.

Take the morning commute for any major city: When a certain percentage of cars automatically execute on the fastest route to anywhere, the burden of traffic will ease exponentially. This will raise the average speed on any given street or highway, adding efficiency to every car on the road. This is to say nothing of the fact that accidents will become fewer and farther between, further pushing down traffic load. Taking all the gains found at the city level, from a national perspective a measureable ease in fuel demand will occur, and the market price will drop.

Nice.

There are a number of other reasons to adopt this tech, but as it turns out I don’t know what the fuck I’m talking about (made it 700 odd words). I’m also itching to get to the big one.

Commercial Industry Incentives

Insensitivity warning: Insensitivity ahead.

There are lots of professional drivers out there. Millions of ‘em, in fact, making their living and supporting their families as long-haul truckers and delivery drivers. Each year they move goods nearly a quarter of a trillion (trillion (with a fucking T)) miles in the US alone. And those muhfuggas are expensive.

Do you have any idea what $.40/.25Trillion is? I do. It’s the annual number of dollars that trucking companies pay their drivers. Or taken another way, it’s the number of dollars tacked on to goods purchased by consumers. It’s also a hundred billion. And it’s only a matter of time before one of those two paying entities want some of their dollars back.

And again with the exponential return thing: As go the truck drivers, so goes the weekly mileage limitations imposed for safety reasons. So goes the time “wasted” while the drivers “sleep”, or “eat”. So goes the unreliable dependence on sight for safety at night, or in inclement weather. No more rookie driver mistakes costing time and money, fewer touch-points for shrink (“Musta fell off the truck”), and so much less paid out in liability for accidents with other motorists. Most people already know the truckers are the careful ones, but if you’ve got 6 cameras on each side of your trucks, you’ll have some beautiful footage of the idiots who crash into your stuff.

So we’ve got the tech, we’ve got the incentive. Why hasn’t this happened already?

Lots of reasons.

1.      The tech probably isn’t quite ready just yet. Nervous manufactures don’t want to get sued because their self-driving car wrecked, so they’ll keep at R&D and then release consumer grade products when they feel like they’re covered.

2.      And speaking of coverage, there will need to be lots more laws written around driverless vehicles. Who pays when one of these things really does crash with fault? The driver who bought it? The manufacturer who made it? The part supplier whose camera stopped working? The software company who programed it?

3.      And speaking of laws, we all know how quick our lawmakers are to understand and embrace technology. Luckily the silver-tongued $100B the trucking industry alone stands to make per year by not paying their drivers is a sweet talking little honey bunny.

4.      And speaking of embracing technology, would you buy a first gen automated car? Consumers will have to be eased into the technology, even as it has existed safely for several years. But waves of releases – a car that drives in traffic, a car that parks itself, a car that can swerve to avoid an accident and then give you back control – will boost consumer confidence. It won’t be long then before fully automated cars are in demand and commonplace.

But, the time scale mentioned above is certainly not on par with my prediction of consumer available driverless cars within 12 years. So how do we bridge that gap? If one wanted to speed up the adoption process, facilitating our transition to driverless cars, there is one more consumer touch-point that I think will be instrumental in the broad familiarization of the new technology.

Car sharing

Call it a taxi, call it ZipCar or Car2Go, call it Lyft. Whatever you call it, it’s not your car but it just drove you somewhere and you paid someone something. The experiences can be great, but more often than not they’re horrible: Sometimes you know for a fact your driver is either lost or taking the long way. Sometimes you pay $50 to go 12 miles. Sometimes you’re drunk and you kill a cabbie (amirite?). Whatever your experience, you know it could be better than it is now.

This is where our first consumer experience with driverless cars will come in. The new automated car service will pilot in a big, tech friendly city. You’ll give it a shot on your own terms, ordering the car and taking a little trip – like a carnival ride. You’ll appreciate the quick, quiet, clean experience. You’ll see your destination on a screen with traffic flow and an ETA. You’ll fare will be automatically deducted from your bank account – no need to even pull out your wallet or phone (this is 12 years from now after all). And then you’ll be hooked. You’ll begin to wonder if you could get rid of your car, and just use this service.

The company that supplies this service will be a giant. Who else will have the pockets to roll it out first? They will have the experience and knowhow from millions of miles quietly piloting prototypes, and this gives them reason to create a market that helps recoup their extensive R&D costs. They’ll have limitless access to bleeding edge technology, world class navigation algorithms, comprehensive street level mapping of every major city, proven influence with legal policy creation, and always looking for deeper product integration. If only such a company existed now.